Conference Proceedings Paper
Assessment of Uncertainty in Depletion Calculations using Statistical Sampling Methods
36th Annual CNS-CNA Student Conference - 2012 June 12
Curtis McEwan (Master's Student )
The best estimate method of safety analysis involves choosing a realistic set of input parameters for a proposed safety case and evaluating the uncertainty in the results. Determining the uncertainty remains a challenge and is the subject of a benchmarking exercise proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The work proposed in this paper will contribute to this benchmark by assessing the uncertainty in a depletion calculation of the final nuclide concentrations for an experiment performed in the Fukushima-2 reactor. This will be done using lattice transport code DRAGON and a tool known as DINOSAUR which perturbs the values in the cross section library according to their uncertainty range. The result is a series of calculations which contain numerous possible conbinations of cross sections and a distribution of possible results which can be used to determine the uncertainty in the output parameters.
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