Conference Proceedings Paper
COST ESTIMATING & DECOMMISSIONING PLANNING: CRITICAL DECISION POINTS WITH RESPECT TO ACCURACY
3rd Canadian Nuclear Waste Management Decommissioning and Environmental Restoration - 2016 Sept. 11-14
E. Lloyd (SNC-Lavalin)
S. Deachman (SNC-Lavalin)
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) requires that all operators of licensed nuclear facilities in Canada prepare preliminary decommissioning plans that provide a basis for financial guarantees. Financial guarantees are updated on 3 to 5 year cycles. The CNSC has provided guidance for preparing preliminary decommissioning plans and financial guarantees in CNSC Regulatory Guides G-206, “Financial Guarantees for the Decommissioning of Licensed Activities.” CNSC G-206 requires that the cost estimate provided for decommissioning fall within 10% to 30% accuracy range, as measured by contingency and in accordance with the American Institute of Cost Engineers and the Construction Industry Institute. In this presentation, we will consider the complexities of assessing the accuracy of a cost estimate and the challenges that are presented to decommissioning planning.
A decommissioning cost estimate, in the context of CNSC Guide 206, is not based on a decommissioning plan that is ready for implementation in the short term. Commonly the facility decommissioning may not be expected within the next 50 years and only at the end of life of a facility. The combination of CNSC’s periodic reporting requirement and changes at the facility over each reporting period results in an iterative decommissioning planning process where decommissioning cost estimates and their respective accuracy my vary significantly with time.
This paper presents the fundamental building blocks required to prepare a decommissioning cost estimate and will elaborate on the variable levels of accuracy within a final submission. The paper sets realistic expectations for a CNSC submission. Fundamental concepts of how accuracy is measured are discussed.
This paper focuses on how knowns and unknowns impact accuracy, contingency and risk in decommissioning or decommissioning cost estimating. It also suggests strategies for managing limitations of an estimate caused by limitations in quantifiable data.
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