Risk-Informed Prediction of Feeder End of Life
32nd Annual CNS Conference - 2011 June 05-08


Presented at:
32nd Annual CNS Conference
2011 June 05-08
Location:
Niagara Falls, Canada
Session Title:
PRA, Human Factors and Reliability

Authors:
Mikko Jyrkama (University of Waterloo)
Mahesh Pandey (University of Waterloo)
  

Abstract

The operating life of feeder piping is negatively impacted by flow accelerated corrosion (FAC).  In this study, an assessment of a large set of inspection data reveals that FAC in feeders is a relatively stationary process, with variability only at the local scale.  Given the added uncertainty from inspection coverage, a new method for estimating the thinning rate and feeder EOL is developed using a probabilistic approach.  The results of the study illustrate the benefits of the methodology in supporting risk-informed decision making at the station by quantifying the present and incremental risk in the feeder system over time.

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