A Bayesian Formulation of Seismic Fragility Analysis of Safety Related Equipment
34th Annual CNS Conference - 2013 June 09-12

Presented at:
34th Annual CNS Conference
2013 June 09-12
Toronto, Canada
Session Title:
Safety & Licencing 2

Zhao-Liang Wang (University of Waterloo)
Mahesh Pandey (University of Waterloo)
Wei-Chau Xie (University of Waterloo)


A Bayesian approach to seismic fragility analysis of safety-related equipment is formulated. Unlike treating two sources of uncertainty of in the parameter estimation in two steps separately using the classical statistics, a Bayesian hierarchical model is advocated for interpreting and combining the various uncertainties more clearly in this article. In addition, with the availability of additional earthquake experience data and shaking table test results, a Bayesian approach to updating the fragility model of safety-related equipments is formulated by incorporating acquired failure and survivor evidence. Numerical results show the significance in fragility analysis using the Bayesian approach.

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