Conference Proceedings Paper
On a Best-Estimate Approach to the Calculation of Dryout Probability During BWR Transients
NURETH-14 - 2011 September 25-30
Carl Adamsson (Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB)
Jean-Marie Le Corre (Westinghouse Electric Sweden AB)
A method is proposed whereby uncertainty of any dryout margin measure (figure of merit)
may be quantified when the only experimental information available for validation is whether
dryout has occurred or not. The method does not involve the heater temperature, except as a
discrete dryout indicator. This is an advantage when analysing anticipated operational
occurrences for which the acceptance criterion refers exclusively to the probability of dryout
occurrence. The derived uncertainty provides a direct relation between the simulated dryout
margin and the aforementioned probability. Furthermore, the method, which is based on
logistic regression, has been designed to be consistent with more common parametric methods
of uncertainty analysis that are likely to be used for other parts of a thermal hydraulic model.
One example is provided where the method is utilized to assess statistical properties, which
would have been difficult to quantify by other means.
Individual Conference-Paper Copies (Electronic Where Available):
- For CNS members, the first 5 copies per calendar year are free, and additional copies are $10 each.
- For non-members, the price is $25 for the first Conference-paper copy in a request, and $10 each for additional copies of papers in the same conference and in the same request.
- Contact the CNS office to order reprints.