Dynamic Scenario Quantification Based on Continuous Markov Monte Carlo Method With Meta-Model of Thermalhydraulics for Level 2 PSA
NURETH-14 - 2011 September 25-30

Presented at:
2011 September 25-30
Toronto, Canada
Session Title:
E6-1 Safety Analysis of Sodium Cooled, RBMK and VVER Reactors

Satoshi Shinzaki (Osaka University)
Akira Yamaguchi (Osaka University)
Takashi Takata (Osaka University)
Hiroshi Endo (Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization)
Tomoko Ishizu (Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization)


We have established a dynamic scenario quantification method based on the coupling of a

Continuous Markov Monte Carlo (CMMC) method and a plant thermal-hydraulics analysis code

for level 2 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). This paper presents meta-analysis coupling

model to obtain the dynamic scenario quantification with a reasonable computational cost. The

PLOHS (protected-loss-of-heat-sink) accident of a liquid sodium fast reactor is selected as the

level 2 PSA scenario in the model. Furthermore, we also discuss categorizing methods of the

quantification result because the coupling method differs widely from existing event tree method.

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