A Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Type Analysis for Computing Accurate Critical Channel Power Uncertainties
NURETH-14 - 2011 September 25-30


Presented at:
NURETH-14
2011 September 25-30
Location:
Toronto, Canada
Session Title:
O4-3 BEPU (Best Estimate code Plus Uncertainty) method, CSAU, Statistical Methods

Authors:
Dan Quach (AMEC NSS)
Paul Sermer (AMEC NSS)
Fred Hoppe (McMaster University)
Ovidiu Nainer (Bruce Power)
Bac Phan (Ontario Power Generation)
  

Abstract

This paper provides a Critical Channel Power (CCP) uncertainty analysis methodology based on a Monte-Carlo approach.  This Monte-Carlo method includes the identification of the sources of uncertainty and the development of error models for the characterization of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties associated with the CCP parameter.  Furthermore, the proposed method facilitates a means to use actual operational data leading to improvements over traditional methods (e.g., sensitivity analysis) which assume parametric models that may not accurately capture the possible complex statistical structures in the system input and responses.  

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